Florida’s Recovery Remains on Track in January
Florida's unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points in January to
7.8 percent, bringing Florida's jobless rate slightly under the U.S. rate for
the first time in five years. The improvement was driven by strong
employment growth combined with modest growth in the labor force. The
number of Floridians working increased 2.5 percent over the past year,
while the number either working or actively looking for work, the civilian
labor force, increased by just 1.0 percent.
Private employment rose 2.3 percent year-over-year, which is slightly
better than the 1.8 percent overall rise. Job gains have been broad based
with the exception of information and government. The information sector
has lagged recently due to cutbacks in traditional publishing that have
offset gains in the tech sector. Government has also faced declines due to
tighter federal, state and local budgets. Service-providing sectors posted the
strongest gains, led by growth in Florida’s key leisure and hospitality sector.
Construction employment also increased, rising 3.2 percent, likely driven
by recent improvement in the home building and commercial construction.
Over the past year, Florida has added 134,600 jobs and the unemployment
rate has fallen 1.4 percentage points, the largest decline in the nation.
Nearly Every Major Employment Sector Improved in Revisions
Florida’s labor market is better positioned than previously thought. The
revised data show Florida added over 250,000 jobs since March 2011, or
86,000 more jobs than initially reported. With the exception of the
information sector, all employment categories were revised up. Trade,
transportation and warehousing, leisure and hospitality and construction
all saw double-digit improvements, helping to raise annual nonfarm payroll
growth nearly one full percentage point to 1.8 percent. The upward revision
is not entirely surprising considering that the household survey and
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages were both tracking larger
annual gains than the initial 2012 nonfarm employment figures. Although
recent data is encouraging, employment remains 7.4 percentage points
below its prerecession peak, which is equivalent to a gap of nearly 600,000
jobs. The upward revisions are welcomed news, but at the current pace, it
would take over four years to get back to the 2007 peak.
South Florida’s labor market has been a bit more volatile. Previous
employment figures showed a marked deceleration and were much lower
than the recently revised numbers. Some deceleration is still evident even
after the revisions. Much of the slowdown has been in Dade County, where
job growth is now up just 1.1 percent year-to-year. Employment growth has
also moderated in West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale, which are up 2.1
percent and 2.0 percent, respectively. The geographic center of job growth
appears to have shifted to the center of the state, with Tampa and Orlando
adding 31,200 new jobs and 20,200 jobs over the past year, respectively.