The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) dropped 0.2 percent last month to 109.8. The LEI had risen 0.5 percent in May.
"The indicators point to slower growth through the fall," says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. "Two trends will have a direct impact on the pace of economic expansion. First, improvement in the industrial core of the economy will moderate as inventory rebuilding slows. Second, improvement in the service sector has been relatively slow, with little indication that it will pick up momentum."
Although the LEI declined for the past two of three months, it is still 4.5 percent above its peak before the recession. Additionally, all LEI criteria except housing permits and stock prices have grown.
The Conference Board's Lagging Economic Index (LAG) grew 0.1 percent in June to 107.6 after dropping a combined 0.4 percent in March and April.