Area Development
As the worst recession in a half century came to a technical end in the third quarter, the U.S. economy expanded for the first time in a year. Economic output increased by 2.8 percent, led by consumer spending, federal government spending, residential investment, business investment, and the net investment in private inventories. Countering the positive activity was a negative trade balance and a decline in state and local government spending.

Despite improved output, the impending recovery will remain fragile due to a persistently weak labor market and continued tight credit market, particularly for consumers and small businesses.