Hardly a day goes by that we’re not absorbed in artificial intelligence news. Unprecedented product launches, enormous data center projects, and concerns around the tech’s energy consumption and sustainability dominate tech headlines. But meanwhile, a smaller and quieter narrative about the future of data processing is quickly gaining volume and momentum.

Tech giants like IBM, Google, and Microsoft, along with academic, health care, and government institutions around the world, are racing to develop quantum computers, a completely different information technology that has the potential to surpass AI’s speed and power. Scaling quantum computing would mean rethinking data centers as we know them, but the payoff could be huge: thousands of profitable businesses, geopolitical dominance, and solutions to some of humanity’s biggest challenges, like cancer and climate change.

So while quantum headlines only make a tiny ripple compared to the giant splash of showy announcements like Stargate, OpenAI’s $500 billion AI infrastructure endeavor, or the $60 billion that Meta has committed to investing in AI this year alone — folks in economic development are already preparing for a quantum computing wave. While some experts assert that we’re still 20 years away from reliable, practical, profitable applications of quantum, others say this could happen much sooner.

“The timing is not what people think it is; I don't think it's two decades,” says Victor Hoskins, President and CEO of Fairfax County Economic Development Authority (FCEDA), a local government funded organization in Virginia, the largest data center market in the world according to a 2024 report from the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC). “I think a decade from now there will already be a lot of practical applications [of quantum computing].”

Indeed, just in the past 12 months large-scale quantum data centers have opened in Israel and Germany, and IBM completed a major expansion of its Quantum Data Center in Poughkeepsie, New York. Colorado recently won a $40.5 million federal grant to establish a quantum computing hub in the state, and Illinois has committed $500 million to develop the National Quantum Algorithm Center, a partnership among IBM, the University of Chicago, and the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

Here’s a look at the state of quantum computing, its growth trajectory, its unique data center requirements, and how business and civic leaders can start preparing today.

A unique information technology with distinct capabilities and needs

Since the 1980s, scientists have been experimenting with quantum computers and their potential to process vast amounts of data much more quickly and accurately than the classical computing systems we use today.

Unlike classical computers, which process information in binary bits (0s and 1s), quantum computers leverage qubits, data units that are capable of existing in multiple states simultaneously — a phenomenon known as superposition. This flexibility allows quantum computers to perform extremely complex calculations at speeds unimaginable with traditional systems, including AI. Additionally, a quantum phenomenon called entanglement enables qubits to be interconnected, further enhancing these new computers’ potential to process unprecedented data loads with accuracy and efficiency.

Quantum computing is still in early stages, and it’s a small world — last year’s third annual Quantum World Congress, a conference co-sponsored by FCEDA, had about a thousand in attendance, representing 30 countries. But that’s double the crowd compared to the conference’s debut in 2022.

Plenty of money has been directed toward this research. Since 2020, the U.S. government has invested between $3 billion and $4 billion into quantum technology (which includes quantum sensing, communication, and materials in addition to computing). And venture capital investors have also coughed up roughly $3 billion for quantum computing in recent years.

Increasing investments yield new advancements every year as scientists work to prove and scale “quantum advantage” — a problem or class of problems that quantum computers can solve better than classical machines.

“We believe that before the end of 2026, we'll reach advantage in a real problem,” says Antonio Córcoles, PhD, Head of Quantum and HPC and Principal Research Scientist at IBM. Córcoles leads a group of about 75 developers who are building user-friendly software architecture around IBM’s evolving quantum services — a nod to the company’s optimism about this tech’s impending mainstream uses.

Experts say the earliest practical applications of quantum computing are likely to be in cybersecurity in addition to chemistry, opening doors in fields like life science and drug development. According to a 2024 report from Boston Consulting Group quantum computing could create up to $850 billion in economic value by 2040.

Designing quantum data centers presents notable challenges

Unlike the simpler bits used in classical computing, qubits require extreme stability in order to maintain their quantum state. This poses significant challenges for data center facility planners.

First, qubits need to be kept extremely cold — near absolute zero, or -459.67° F — to eliminate thermal vibrations that can disturb calculations. All of IBM's quantum computers operate in dilution refrigerators, which use a mixture of two helium isotopes to reach these temperatures. Since 2019, the company has rapidly scaled data center-ready systems, first with the IBM Quantum System One, and then in 2022 when “Project Goldeneye” contributed to the rollout of the even larger IBM Quantum System Two.

Others are experimenting with alternative cooling techniques. Researchers at the University of Rochester, for example, recently won a $1.25 million grant to explore how quantum mechanics itself, specifically quantum “dots” that trap electrons, might facilitate an ultra-cold environment that costs less and uses less energy — music to any data center operator’s ears.

Similarly, qubits must be insulated from electromagnetic disturbances and noise, something that will require a considerable pivot from the loud roar of today’s data centers.

How the solutions to these problems will be implemented into facility design remains to be seen. Fred Miller, Project Executive at Gresham Smith, a Nashville-based architecture firm that designs and plans “mission-critical” facilities including many data centers, says he’s not getting requests for quantum data center projects — yet.

But many in the economic development space are confident that these quantum data center challenges will be surfaced, solved and scaled. “It's just [a question of] when the science is ready,” says George Thomas, President and CEO of Connected DMV, a nonprofit dedicated to solving economic development challenges across Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Virginia, and host of Quantum World Congress. “I'm never worried about engineering because we as creatures are optimization engines.”

Gauging the U.S. government’s interest in quantum computing

Like many countries, the United States likes to maintain leadership in new technologies just for the prestige and bragging rights. When it comes to quantum computing, there is an even greater incentive to arrive first.

That’s because, as quantum computers continue to advance, they could easily surpass the cybersecurity threshold of today’s most sophisticated encryption and threat detection programs. Banking, retail and national security data could be at risk in the future, or perhaps even now with a method called “harvest now, decrypt later,” in which bad actors steal information to decode later, once quantum has evolved enough.

Despite these potentially looming threats, some feel the U.S. government is not moving fast enough on quantum computing.

“When I consider the focus of some of the national labs in the U.S., they are at the moment so excited about AI that it's hard to bring the quantum story,” Córcoles says, speculating that achieving quantum advantage could be the type of breakthrough that prompts a sudden, drastic increase in quantum computing investments.

Another motivating factor: China may be outpacing the U.S. and allies in quantum computing, having published more research papers on the topic annually than any other country since 2022, according to the Mercator Institute for China Studies, the leading European think tank on China.

The U.S. government is perhaps unlikely to allow its main adversary to have a leg up on quantum for long, considering the implications for national security. “And that government money — once it starts coming, it flows,” Hoskins says.

“The barrier right now is that the [U.S.] government has to be more courageous and lean in,” Hoskins says. “The Netherlands is investing — what is it, $600 million in quantum? That's a little country. We need to think about on a per capita basis what we need to invest. Breakthroughs don't happen by accident, they happen by investment and intellectual prowess.”

No end to the energy problem (yet)

Since quantum computers have been shown to complete calculations almost inconceivably faster than classical computers, some folks have suggested that they could be an answer to today’s energy crisis, which has been exacerbated by the colossal energy demands of AI Couldn’t we just replace power-hungry AI with sleek, efficient quantum processing?

The reality is more complicated. Córcoles says that while quantum will be more energy-efficient than classical computing eventually, achieving that is still some distance in the future. In the nearer term, it’s more likely that quantum computers will be deployed to solve problems that classical computers can’t even attempt. “In this way, the energy problem is a little bit different because we are talking about being able to compute something versus not,” he says.

Further, the first large-scale quantum-friendly data centers will likely be hybrid, handling classical computations, too — similar to the task switching that’s now standard between central processing units (CPUs) and powerful graphics processing units (GPUs).

“You will [use quantum] for very complex correlation kind of functions and have the output sent to the classical [components] to handle whatever workflow you have,” Córcoles says. “So every quantum computation is going to be surrounded by classical processing, but without quantum, you won't have the access to very important problems.”

Therefore, it’s quite possible that quantum computing will hit some level of mainstream before it becomes the answer to our sustainability problems. This means that data center owners’ and tech leaders’ current endeavors to source more power and/or right-size tech stacks are more necessary than ever.

“Utilities and power availability is a driving factor right now, because computing density keeps going up, and more and more power is required,” Miller says. “People are already scouring the United States looking for any utility that might have a few hundred megawatts of available power that they could put to work or a data center project.” Some tech companies are exploring nuclear energy, though this is not expected to be a quick fix, as the up-front cost and time commitment for new nuclear power plants are significant.

“Perhaps there could be a 100,000-qubit machine that can replace a hundred AI data centers, in which case the footprint would be smaller,” Thomas speculates. “But we just don't know those answers.”

Córcoles asserts that collaboration with traditional data center partners sooner rather than later is crucial. “When we get to the end of this decade, when data centers are going to really be benefiting from these quantum computers, if we have standardized things enough [by then], it won't be a lot of effort structurally or infrastructurally.”

A mounting quantum computing workforce gap

The projects involved in necessitating and developing the quantum data centers of tomorrow could be significantly slowed by labor shortages.

First, this industry would have to create the demand for quantum data centers in the first place — meaning, enough businesses, academic institutions, organizations, and government agencies have to be leveraging quantum computing to even have a need for large-scale data centers.

Here, the advancement of quantum computer science may be ahead of the available workforce. A 2022 McKinsey report revealed a major gap between available quantum computing jobs and people to fill them.

Connected DMV runs quantum programs for area high schoolers — workforce development for 10 years on (and beyond). “Many of them have entered Ivy League schools in physics and quantum to build this [field] up,” Thomas says.

Thomas explains that this year, his organization is focused on supporting middle schoolers’ interest in quantum, too. “By the time they get into the seventh grade, kids [are having to make choices that] restrict them.” Part of his organization’s strategy even involves raising awareness of quantum computing among middle school teachers, who could have considerable influence on their students’ academic paths and the quantum computing worker pipeline.

Then there’s the question of designing, permitting and building a scaled-up quantum data center. With classical data center development already soaring today, Miller says, credentialed contractors and their skilled crews are in high demand. Depending on where a data center is being built or modified, there may be a wait.

Tying quantum into existing data centers may minimize snags. The classical computing folks already did the hard work of finding spots with energy, water, reasonable bureaucratic pathways, and amenable local communities where local energy and safety requirements have been met — and where NIMBY responses have been avoided or overcome.

Is there any way to predict when quantum data centers will be needed?

Guesses vary widely, but Thomas suggests one reliable way to follow quantum computing’s trajectory and be ready to meet data center demand: Watch quantum computing enterprise activity.

“If I am a generic data center owner in Northern Virginia, I don't need to be thinking about whether I'll have a full-scale quantum-only center today because there's 50 different business opportunities between now and then.”

Eventually, Thomas says, there is likely to be a tipping point at which there are enough quantum-related businesses, which attract enough users, to warrant a ramp-up in data centers that can accommodate quantum calculations. “I would estimate dozens if not hundreds of companies are going to start popping up,” Thomas says — enterprises in finance and biotech, either building quantum machines or quantum-reliant software that runs on the cloud. We’re just not there… yet.

Córcoles also seems confident. “Within my career, I will see… important developments that are held by quantum, and that excites me a lot,” Córcoles says. “Let's say that quantum helps make progress in developing a vaccine an order of magnitude faster — that's a huge impact on everything. That's an easy example, but there are many more.”

What leaders in the data center space can do now: Spend the next few years paying attention to big tech’s quantum teams, and to the academic institutions they’re partnering with, to get a sense for advancements, timelines and breakthroughs in infrastructure design. And if you’ve got friends in cryogenics, it may not hurt to start sending them holiday cards.