International Energy Outlook 2011 (IEO201) provides updated projections for world energy markets from 2008 through 2035 timeframe using a "reference case" model. It does not take into account future legislation or policies that might affect energy markets.
Acting EIA Administrator Howard Gruenspecht said that "China alone, which only recently became the world's top energy consumer, is projected to use 68 percent more energy than the United States by 2035."
Other key findings include:
- The economies of China and India were among those least affected by the worldwide recession, and they continue to lead world economic growth and energy demand growth.
- In 2008, China and India combined accounted for 21 percent of total world energy consumption. With strong economic growth in both countries over the projection period, their combined energy use more than doubles by 2035, when they account for 31 percent of world energy use in the report's projections.
- Renewable energy is projected to be the fastest growing source of primary energy over the next 25 years, but fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy. Fossil fuels continue to supply much of the energy used worldwide throughout the projection, and still account for 78 percent of world energy use in 2035
- Natural gas has the fastest growth rate among the fossil fuels over the 2008 to 2035 projection period. World natural gas consumption increases 1.6 percent per year, from 111 trillion cubic feet in 2008 to 169 trillion cubic feet in 2035. Unconventional natural gas (tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane) supplies increase substantially in the projection, most notably from the U.S. as well as from Canada and China.
- World oil prices remain high, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. In the report's reference case, the price of light sweet crude oil (in real 2009 dollars) remains high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035.
- Total world petroleum and other liquids fuel use increases by 26.9 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2035, but the growth in conventional crude oil production is less than half this amount at 11.5 million barrels per day. Production of natural gas plant liquids increases by 5.1 million barrels per day,
- World production of unconventional resources (including biofuels, oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids), which totaled 3.9 million barrels per day in 2008, increases to 13.1 million barrels per day in 2035.