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Leading Locations for 2019 Methodology

Q4 2019
Area Development ranked 399 MSAs across 16 economic and workforce indicators. These 16 indicators were pulled from six (6) data sets (sub-categories) originating from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census American Community Survey.

Each MSA earned a ranking within each of the 16 indicators based on its statistical performance within that indicator. The MSA with the best performance in a certain indicator earned a ranking score of "1" and the MSA with the worst performance earned a ranking score of "399."

To calculate "Overall Ranking," we added the total ranking across all indicators for each MSA and then divided by the total number of indicators to reach an average ranking. The MSA with the lowest average earned the #1 overall ranking, while the MSA with the highest average ranked #399 overall.

We also calculated overall ranking across four categories: "Prime Workforce," "Economic Strength," "Five-Year Growth" and “Year-Over-Year Growth.” To calculate the overall ranking within these four categories, we produced an average ranking across only certain indicators. An indicator does not have to be exclusive to any single category ranking. For instance, the "Employment Growth Net 5-Year Change as Percentage of Population" is used within both the "Economic Strength" and "Midterm Growth" categories.

We have also produced a set of lists, using our overall results and category results, grouping the MSAs by region and size. We ranked the Top 5-20 MSAs in each region (defined by Area Development Online taxonomy), and we also ranked the top MSAs across three size groups: "Small" (population < 160,000), "Mid-sized" (population 160,000-600,000), and "Big" (population > 600,000). We ranked the cities within each size group against our overall rankings and "Prime Work Force," "Economic Strength," "Midterm (Five Year) Growth" and “Year-Over-Year Growth” categories.

Sub-Categories and Indicators Used in the Leading Locations Report

Sub-Category: "Young, Prime Workforce"

    Indicators:
  • 2017 workforce 18-44 years with bachelor’s degree or higher as % of total workforce1
  • Workforce 18-44 years with bachelor’s degree or higher as % of total workforce1 3-year change rank (2017-2014)
Data Set Sources: GEOGRAPHICAL MOBILITY IN THE PAST YEAR BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR CURRENT RESIDENCE IN THE UNITED STATES 2014 and 2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates - U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey

EMPLOYMENT STATUS 2014 and 2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates - U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey



Sub-Category: "Prime Workforce Inward Migration"

    Indicators:
  • Total inward migration for 2017 with bachelor’s degree or higher as a % of total workforce rank1
  • Total inward migration bachelor’s degree or higher as a % of total workforce1 3-year change rank (2017-2014)
Data Set Sources: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT 2014 and 2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates - U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey

EMPLOYMENT STATUS 2014 and 2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates - U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey

“Economically vital as well as physically or culturally appealing regions do best in attracting an educated workforce from outside regions.”



Sub-Category: "Local Area Unemployment Rate"

    Indicators:
  • Local area unemployment rate 1-year change rank (August 2019 – August 2018)
  • Local area unemployment rate 3-year change rank (August 2019 – August 2016)
  • Local area unemployment rate 5-year change rank (August 2019 – August 2014)

Data Set Source: Local Area Unemployment Rate, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics



Sub-Category: "Wage and Salary Growth"

    Indicators:
  • Average hourly earnings 1-year rate change rank (August 2019 – August 2018)
  • Average hourly earnings 3-year rate change rank (August 2019 – August 2016)
  • Average hourly earnings 5-year rate change rank (August 2019 – August 2014)

Data Set Source: State and Area Average Hourly Earnings (Private), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics



Sub-Category: "Goods Producing Job Growth"

    Indicators:
  • Manufacturing/goods-producing employment 1-year net change as % of population rank (August 2019 – August 2018)2
  • Manufacturing/goods-producing employment 3-year net change as % of population rank (August 2019 – August 2016)2
  • Manufacturing/goods-producing employment 5-year net change as % of population rank (August 2019 – August 2014)2

Data Set Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Goods Producing Employment Statistics - CES (non-seasonally adjusted)

“A measure of growth in the goods-producing sectors, primarily consisting of manufacturing and energy.”



Sub-Category: "Job Growth"
    Indicators:
  • Employment growth net 1-year change as percentage of population rank (August 2019 – August 2018)2
  • Employment growth net 3-year change as percentage of population rank (August 2019 – August 2016)2
  • Employment growth net 5-year change as percentage of population rank (August 2019 – August 2014)2

Data Set Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Total Non-Farm Employment Statistics - CES (Non-seasonally adjusted)

Ranking Categories

Overall Ranking
Each MSA is ranked based on the average sum total ranking across all seven (6) data sets comprising 16 indicators.



Prime Workforce

    Indicators:
  • 2017 workforce 18-44 years with bachelor’s degree or higher as a percentage of total workforce1
  • Workforce 18-44 years with bachelor’s degree or higher as a percentage of total work force 3-year change rank1 (2017-2014)
  • Total inward migration 2017 with bachelor’s degree or higher as a percentage of total work force rank1
  • Total inward migration with bachelor’s degree or higher as a percentage of total work force 3-year change rank (2017-2014)
  • Average hourly earnings 1-year rate change rank (August 2019 – August 2018)
  • Average hourly earnings 3-year rate change (August 2019 – August 2016)
  • Average hourly earnings 5-year rate change rank (August 2019 – August 2014)


Economic Strength
We looked at all economic indicator factors and excluded workforce indicators.

    Indicators:
  • Manufacturing/goods-producing employment 1-year net change as % of population rank (August 2019 – August 2018)2
  • Manufacturing/goods-producing employment 3-year net change as % of population rank (August 2019 – August 2016)2
  • Manufacturing/goods-producing employment 5-year net change as % of population rank (August 2019 – August 2014)2
  • Employment growth net 1-year change as percentage of population rank (August 2019 – August 2018)2
  • Employment growth net 3-year change as percentage of population rank (August 2019 – August 2016)2
  • Employment growth net 5-year change as percentage of population rank (August 2019 – August 2014)2
  • Local area unemployment rate 1-year change rank (August 2019 – August 2018)
  • Local area unemployment rate 3-year change rank (August 2019 – August 2016)
  • Local area unemployment rate 5-year change rank (August 2019 – August 2014)


Midterm (Five Year) Growth
We look at only the economic indicators ranking change from 2014 against the most recent data for that indicator.

    Indicators:
  • Employment growth net 5-year change as percentage of population rank (August 2019 – August 2014)2
  • Local area unemployment rate 5-year change rank (August 2019 – August 2014)
  • Manufacturing/goods-producing employment 5-year net change as % of population rank (August 2019 – August 2014)2
  • Average hourly earnings 5-year rate change rank (August 2019 – August 2014)


"Year-Over-Year Growth” Cities
We looked at only the economic indicators ranking change from 2018 against the most recent data for that indicator. This provides some measure of which cities have had the strongest short-term economic growth.

    Indicators:
  • Employment growth net 1-year change as percentage of population rank (August 2019 – August 2018)2
  • Local area unemployment rate 1-year change rank (August 2019 – August 2018)
  • Manufacturing/goods-producing employment 1-year net change as % of population rank (August 2019 – August 2018)2
  • Average hourly earnings 1-year rate change rank (August 2019 – August 2018)

Exclusive Research